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Predicting climate-fire-vegetation interactions and landscape change

Our team worked collaboratively with managers to model changes to Southwestern forested ecosystems under various climate and management scenarios. We used two different models calibrated to distinct landscapes: FireBGC in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico, and LANDIS II on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona. Each model considered two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and seven management scenarios ranging from ‘hands off’ to full thinning and prescribed burning with various intermediate
treatment levels. We presented preliminary results to fire managers for review, and incorporated their feedback to co-develop revised scenarios included in further model runs.

Overview of Modeling Results

Figures below are from: Loehman, R.; Flatley, W.; Holsinger, L.; Thode, A. Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States? Forests 20189, 192.